How much shallower will the 2009 National draft be and which players will be ‘lost’?

The results are based on the previous 4 drafts (number of games played up to this point in brackets) - it seems before 2005 the age cut off was different?:

2005 (1988 birthdates) – 23/66 = 34.8%

1st round

Ellis (36)
Pendlebury (55)
Ryder (52)
Oakley-Nicholls (9)
Higgins (32)
Jones (50)
Birchall (65)
Varcoe (34)

2nd round

Bower (24)
Stanley (4)
Cook (12)
Ibbotson (20)
Riggio (9)

3rd round

Edwards (5)
Anthony (12)
Neagle (8)
Hooper (39)

4th round

Thornton (0)
Minson (0)
Bartram (44)

5th round

Neville (0)
Hutchinson (0)
Giles (0)

2006 (1989 birthdates) - 15/80 = 18.8%

1st round

Gibbs (43)
Reid (6)
Everitt (17)
Sellar (1)

2nd round

Schmidt (2)
Austin (5)
Hawksley (4)

3rd round

Houlihan (8)
Reimers (18)
Schofield (12)
Currie (0)

4th round

Hill (19)
Weetra (2)

5th round

Warren (0)
Sheldon (0)

2007 (1990 birthdates) = 19/69 = 27.5%

1st round

Cotchin (15)
Morton (19)
Dangerfield (2)
Ebert (15)

2nd round

Ward (6)
Notte (2)
Maric (5)
Selwood (9)
Pears (5)
Motlop (2)
Whitecross (0)

3rd round

Steven (0)
Thoolen (0)

4th round

Austin (0)
Donohue(0)

5th round

McNamara (0)
Connors (0)
Kite (0)

6th round

Walker (0)

2008 (1991 birthdates) = 19/79 = 24.1%

1st round

Watts
Ziebell
Sidebottom
Johnston

2nd round

Blease
Hanneberry
Jones
Shiels

3rd round

Motlop
Blight
Rounds

4th round

Walters
Lee
Still
Heath
Lowden

5th round

Savage

6th round

Tiller
King

So based on the previous 4 drafts, an average of:

19 draftees (range 15-23 draftees) OR 25.8% of the draft (range 18.8-34.8%) altogether will be 'lost'.

Round by round:

5 draftees (range 4-8 draftees) from the 1st round
4.8 draftees (range 3-7 draftees) from the 2nd round
3.3 draftees (range 2-4 draftees) from the 3rd round
3 draftees (range 2-5 draftees) from the 4th round
2.3 draftees (range 1-3 draftees) from the 5th round

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The following players from the 2008 U16 championships squads are ineligible due to the rule change, but would’ve been eligible if the rule wasn't changed (‘92 birthdates before 1/5/92):

114 (60 Div 1, 54 Div 2) total 2008 U16 championships prospects ‘lost’ from the 2009 draft

47 (25 Div 1, 22 Div 2) with at least one best game in the 2008 U16 championships
23 (15 Div 1, 8 Div 2) with multiple best games in the 2008 U16 championships
13 (7 Div 1, 6 Div 2) with AIS-AFL scholarships
11 (5 Div 1, 6 Div 2) with at least one best game in the U16 championships and AIS-AFL scholarships
7 with NSW/ACT Scholarship Holders (inc. Stubbs, who has a AFL-AIS scholarship to and is also the only one that featured in the bests in a game)
6 (4 Div 1, 2 Div 2) with multiple best games in the U16 championships and AIS-AFL academy scholarship holders

Vic Metro:

29 Jack FROST 25 Feb 92 189 73 Sandringham/Ormond
30 Luke MITCHELL 28 Feb 92 193 91 Calder/St Bernard’s (1 bests)
27 Patrick KARNEZIS 02 Mar 92 188 76 Oakleigh/Hawthorn Colts
22 Joshua RALPH 11 Apr 92 188 88 Oakleigh/SFX-Whitehorse Colts
23 Josh TOY 18 Apr 92 183 87 Calder/Aberfeldie (4 bests and Div 1 Overall B&F)
24 Alex JOHNSON 24 Mar 92 187 75 Oakleigh/Hawthorn Colts
25 Ryan WILSON 29 Apr 92 178 68 Eastern/Scoresby (1 best)
18 Dean NOTMAN 23 Jan 92 187 74 Western/Melton Sth
19 Brad HARVEY 16 Apr 92 180 74 Eastern/Lilydale
13 Taylor HINE 24 Jan 92 182 73 Calder/Rupertswood
11 Cameron O’SHEA 13 Mar 92 187 87 Eastern/Emerald (3 bests)
9 Tom NICHOLLS 04 Mar 92 200 90 Sandringham/Cheltenham
7 Thomas GORDON 19 Apr 92 191 82 Oakleigh/Beverley Hills JFC (2 bests)
3 Jack HUTCHINS 20 Feb 92 189 84 Sandringham/Haileybury
4 Dylan CONWAY 28 Jan 92 183 77 Western/Williamstown Jnrs (4 bests)
5 Trent McKENZIE 03 Apr 92 185 70 Western/Williamstown Jnrs (2 bests)
1 Ben JACOBS 09 Jan 92 184 83 Sandringham/St Bede’s-Mentone (1 best)

WA:

29 Lloyd SKINNER 22 Jan 92 196 79 South Fremantle (2 bests)
30 Redmond DOBSON 31 Jan 92 192 83 East Perth
35 Adam FEENY 10 Jan 92 183 65 South Fremantle (3 bests)
36 Dylan MURRAY 26 Mar 92 174 68 Perth (1 best)
37 William WALDON 13 Apr 92 187 83 Perth
38 Ryan MALDENIS 26 Jan 92 174 70 East Perth
19 Blayne WILSON 26 Jan 92 184 78 Peel Thunder (2 bests)
20 Brendon GULLEY 03 Apr 92 186 74 South Fremantle (1 best)
21 Kieran BUTCHER 02 Mar 92 180 76 Peel Thunder (2 best)
22 Daniel McDONALD 19 Feb 92 191 80 Swan Districts
16 Jamie CRIPPS 23 Apr 92 180 70 East Fremantle (3 bests)
8 Michael EDWARDS 29 Feb 92 177 66 Perth
2 Brandon MATERA 11 Mar 92 174 61 South Fremantle (2 bests)

VC:

29 Daniel HARRISON 23 Jan 92 192 91 Dandenong/Berwick JFC
28 Richard LANGHAM 10 Apr 92 185 79 Geelong/Geelong Amateur (2 bests)
26 Shaun MARUSIC 24 Mar 92 190 87 Gippsland/Kooweerup
22 Michael O’CALLAGHAN 15 Apr 92 187 75 Nth Ballarat/Horsham (1 best)
20 Alex KEATH 20 Jan 92 196 81 Murray/Shepparton Bears (1 best)
21 Jake WARD 07 Jan 92 188 76 Nth Ballarat/Horsham
16 Luke MAHONY 01 Feb 92 178 73 Geelong/Camperdown
17 Lucas COOK 03 Mar 92 193 79 Nth Ballarat/Hopetoun (2 bests)
15 Mitchell GENT 05 Feb 92 181 70 Dandenong/Bonbeach JFC
13 Lachlan CANNING 30 Mar 92 185 78 Murray/Wangaratta Magpies
11 Piers FLANAGAN 31 Mar 92 187 73 Geelong/Geelong Amateur
8 Rory CAHIR 23 May 92 186 69 Geelong/Torquay
5 Richard BAMBLETT 26 Mar 92 179 73 Nth Ballarat/Heywood (1 best)
6 Lachlan EDWARDS 30 Mar 92 178 75 Nth Ballarat/Maryborough
3 Matt SHAW 05 Feb 92 187 70 Dandenong/CPL JFC
1 Daniel SEMMENS 14 Feb 92 175 70 Geelong/Cobden

SA:

2 Sam GRAY 01 Feb 92 173 68 Port Adelaide/Rudall (3 bests)
3 Tim MILERA 09 Mar 92 169 63 Port Adelaide/Portland/Kooniba
5 Mitchell TILLER 11 Apr 92 175 67 North Adelaide/Goodwood Saints
7 Ben McINTYRE 17 Feb 92 177 66 Glenelg/Naracoorte
8 Clint DIMENT 30 Mar 92 173 79 Glenelg/Bordertown
12 Sam BARNETT 12 Mar 92 183 69 Glenelg/Plympton
13 Hayden JOLLY 04 Apr 92 183 81 Glenelg/PHOS Camden (3 bests)
14 Callum HAY 20 Mar 92 184 73 North Adelaide/Salisbury North
16 Brayden KAIN 10 Jan 92 180 80a Mt Gambier
20 Nathan AHMAT-WATKINS 18 Feb 92 185 73 West Adelaide/Goodwood Saints (1 best)
22 Jarrod HALES 29 Apr 92 189 82 Port Adelaide/North Haven
23 Darcy ARMFIELD 15 Jan 92 188 84 Glenelg/Plympton (2 bests)
26 Josh WITTWER 18 Mar 92 174 67 Central District/Elizabeth
30 Jordan LOCKWOOD 10 Apr 92 192 76 Sturt/Pembroke

NT:

3 Scott TAYLOR 11 Feb 91 184 74 Wests (3 bests)
5 Stanley TURNER 30 Apr 92 177 69 Souths
9 Leroy O’BRIEN 28 Apr 92 176 69 Gove Saints
13 Brenton MOTLOP 12 Apr 92 183 74 Wanderers (1 best)
14 Ben BARRY 13 Apr 92 180 72 Pioneers
18 Steven MAY 10 Jan 92 190 84 Southern Districts (1 best)
19 Liam CARUSI 22 Jan 92 182 82 Katherine Kannons
20 David KRUSE 23 Jan 92 190 81 Wanderers
16 Alex JOHNSON 14 Jan 92 177 78 Palmerston (2 bests)
25 Cameron JONES 29 Feb 92 192 94 Waratahs (1 best)
27 Anthony HALE 21 Jan 92 188 88 Saint Mary’s
29 Chris ALCHIN 13 Jan 92 180 70 Palmerston
30 Dylan HAYNES 16 Mar 92 181 73 Darwin

TAS:

1 Jacob Howard 20 Feb 92 193 88 North Hobart
3 Maverick Weler 13 Feb 92 180 76 Burnie Dockers (4 bests and Div 2 Overall B&F)
4 Luke Rusel 24 Jan 92 184 74 Burnie Dockers (2 bests)
10 Rudy Baret 14 Feb 92 181 70 Wynyard
12 Adam Gren 15 Feb 92 175 65 Kingborough (2 bests)
14 Jason Moore 22 Jan 92 184 89 Northern Bombers (1 best)
15 Jamie Clark 22 Jan 92 184 76 Lions (1 best)
16 Daniel Cox 23 Mar 92 180 74 Prospect Sharks
18 Matthew McIntyre 07 Jan 92 181 76 North Hobart
20 Brad Coad 29 Jan 92 184 70 Kingborough
23 Sam Rundle 09 Feb 92 181 81 East Devonport (3 bests)
24 Stewart Beswick 24 Apr 92 185 89 Latrobe
29 Jed Wiliamson 07 Feb 92 179 65 Brighton

NSW/ACT:

2 Adam ROWLAND 17 Apr 92 175 74 St Pat’s (2 bests)
4 Kamen OGILVIE 11 Jan 92 177 66 Deniliquin Rams
5 Matthew MAY 12 Feb 92 177 71 Tathra
7 Anthony MILES 28 Feb 92 179 67 North Albury (1 best)
8 Jay LEWIS 06 Mar 92 179 69 Pennant Hills
9 Tom O’CONNELL 25 Mar 92 180 58 Osborne (1 best)
10 Daniel LLOYD 18 Feb 92 181 70 Killarney Vale
12 Jack GILLINGHAM 27 Mar 92 182 79 Sawtell
13 James WEBSTER 12 Feb 92 182 72 Terrigal Avoca
17 Thomas KICKETT 21 Feb 92 184 62 Broken Hill
19 Trent STUBBS 26 Mar 92 185 68 Baulkham Hills (1 best)
21 Thomas YOUNG 26 Apr 92 189 80 Campbelltown
22 Kurt AYLETT 02 Apr 92 189 65 Leeton
24 Jarred LANE 06 Mar 92 192 80 Corowa

QLD:

2 Sam USHERWOOD 22 Feb 92 184 75 Southern Redbacks (1 best)
3 William BRADLEY 07 Feb 92 171 60 Caboolture
5 Harry WILSON 16 Jan 92 179 67 Maroochydore
11 James NELIS 17 Apr 92 186 81 Sandgate
12 Daniel MOWAT 11 Jan 92 190 78 Morningside
13 Ryan KIEL 16 Mar 92 183 72 Southport
14 Brad SALMON 13 Feb 92 185 69 Southport
16 Rex LIDDY 01 Jan 92 180 74 Kenmore (1 best)
17 Adam McKENZIE 13 Mar 92 179 72 Broadbeach (1 best)
18 Jake TOOMA 25 Feb 92 180 75 Surfers Paradise (1 best)
19 Tim COLBURN 08 Jan 93 185 73 Sherwood
21 Liam RUTLEDGE 08 Mar 92 185 79 Sandgate (2 bests)
22 Jake CRAWFORD 05 Mar 92 189 81 Pomona (1 best)
25 Lewis MOSS 04 Feb 92 193 77 Port Douglas (1 best)